The FTSE is currently indicating a flat opening, as traders are trying to
avoid being caught on the wrong side of an economic data release. While
there will not be any major news on Wednesday, Thursday brings the Bank of
England interest rate decision, should the BOE cut more then expected, it
may result in a positive reaction from the FTSE.
Oil is trading under the 50 dollars per barrel mark after falling yesterday
on signs the economy in the U.S., the world??s biggest energy consumer,
contracted further in November and December. Today the Department of energy
will release the weekly inventory numbers, which could send the price of oil
back towards the 45 dollars per barrel level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE:4620.2(-14.1)
CAC40:3382.30(-6.70)
DAX30 5021.1 (+9.1)
DOW: 8969 (-43)
SP500:929.23(-3.00)
Gold:859.20(-7.50) Oil: 48.50 (-0.06)
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
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Monday, January 5, 2009
Morning Report 06-01-2009 from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher open as traders wait for the
release of the UK purchasing managers index. There are rumors that the
number could be better then expected, which should give the FTSE a nice
boost. Traders will also be paying close attention to the release of the US
ISM non-manufacturing numbers, which should give as a hint at how the
industry is doing. Oil continues to push higher, on speculation OPEC is
implementing a 9 percent production cut and concerns an expansion of the
Gaza Strip conflict may disrupt Middle East supplies. Oil prices will most
likely be contained under the 50 dollars per barrel level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4589 (+18)
CAC40 3360.80 (+7.00)
DAX30 4988 (+16.00)
DOW: 8978(+17)
SP500 931.78 (+2.25)
Gold: 851.40 (-6.55)
Oil: 48.13 (-0.43)
release of the UK purchasing managers index. There are rumors that the
number could be better then expected, which should give the FTSE a nice
boost. Traders will also be paying close attention to the release of the US
ISM non-manufacturing numbers, which should give as a hint at how the
industry is doing. Oil continues to push higher, on speculation OPEC is
implementing a 9 percent production cut and concerns an expansion of the
Gaza Strip conflict may disrupt Middle East supplies. Oil prices will most
likely be contained under the 50 dollars per barrel level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4589 (+18)
CAC40 3360.80 (+7.00)
DAX30 4988 (+16.00)
DOW: 8978(+17)
SP500 931.78 (+2.25)
Gold: 851.40 (-6.55)
Oil: 48.13 (-0.43)
Markets suffer their worst run for generations
The final week of 2008 passed with many markets recording their worst annual performance for generations. Equities finished above their lows, but still finished down by at least 30%. The S&P 500 closed 2008 down 38%, while the Nikkei closed down over 40%. The ‘lost decade’ rolls on ever more for the Japanese stock market. Perhaps the most remarkable performance came from commodities; at one stage, oil and copper were up 47% and 23% respectively, only to finish the year down 46% and 48%. Despite being at the epicentre of the financial crisis and approaching zero interest rates, the dollar had a good year against the Euro and an exceptional year against the pound. Sterling collapsed against most currencies, nearing parity with Euro and earning the nickname “The British Krona” as a reference to the doomed Icelandic currency.
Stocks started 2009 on the right foot, with a broad based rally that took the Dow Jones within above the psychologically important 9000 level. The Dow hasn’t managed to successfully hold this level since the first few days of November. Commodities looked to be willing to make good some of the losses generated throughout 2008, with oil continuing to move above the $40 a barrel level.
The coming week is dominated by the UK interest rate decision, which comes on the back of Halifax’s announcement that house prices dropped 16.2% last year. This was the worst annual fall on record, bringing prices back to 2004 levels. The Bank of England also warned that the impact of the credit crunch was likely to intensify in the next few months. The MPC is expected to cut yet again to 1.5%, bringing UK rates closer to near zero US levels, and widening the gap between Sterling and the Euro. Friday also brings the all important US Non Farm Payroll figures which are expected to show another drop in the region of 500,000 jobs.
Jason Goepfert of the SentimenTrader.com, points out that the latest AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey puts US investors as having the lowest allocation of stocks in their portfolios since 1991. The level of cash hoarding has reached record levels. According to Goepfert, the only two times when cash allocations and stock allocations reached similar levels (around 40%) was 1991 and 2002. Both occasions were good contrarian indicators.
While it is unlikely to be a smooth ride, there are indications that markets are moving past the bad news to what lies beyond. A Bull trade predicting that the Dow Jones (Wall Street) will be above 9500 in 2 months time could return 103% over the next 60 days at BetOnMarkets.com.
Stocks started 2009 on the right foot, with a broad based rally that took the Dow Jones within above the psychologically important 9000 level. The Dow hasn’t managed to successfully hold this level since the first few days of November. Commodities looked to be willing to make good some of the losses generated throughout 2008, with oil continuing to move above the $40 a barrel level.
The coming week is dominated by the UK interest rate decision, which comes on the back of Halifax’s announcement that house prices dropped 16.2% last year. This was the worst annual fall on record, bringing prices back to 2004 levels. The Bank of England also warned that the impact of the credit crunch was likely to intensify in the next few months. The MPC is expected to cut yet again to 1.5%, bringing UK rates closer to near zero US levels, and widening the gap between Sterling and the Euro. Friday also brings the all important US Non Farm Payroll figures which are expected to show another drop in the region of 500,000 jobs.
Jason Goepfert of the SentimenTrader.com, points out that the latest AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Survey puts US investors as having the lowest allocation of stocks in their portfolios since 1991. The level of cash hoarding has reached record levels. According to Goepfert, the only two times when cash allocations and stock allocations reached similar levels (around 40%) was 1991 and 2002. Both occasions were good contrarian indicators.
While it is unlikely to be a smooth ride, there are indications that markets are moving past the bad news to what lies beyond. A Bull trade predicting that the Dow Jones (Wall Street) will be above 9500 in 2 months time could return 103% over the next 60 days at BetOnMarkets.com.
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